Showing posts with label AWS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AWS. Show all posts

Friday, July 24, 2020

AT&T 5G Nationwide Milestone & Then Some

At the 2Q20 AT&T earnings call, CFO Stephens quickly stated that AT&T had achieved nationwide 5G capability.  None of the financial analysts caught it or asked follow-ups. At the call’s end, the press release came out. 

Key highlights for the people who are TLDR:

-       It’s nationwide
-       AT&T Unlimited Starter (entry plan) is 5G enabled
-       Cricket’s premium Unlimited Plus plan is 5G enabled



I was fortunate to share a subject call other analyst colleagues and former boater and possibly future RV king AT&T’er Gordon Mansfield to get more detail. Here are some relevant points:

-       Nationwide = 205 million POPs covered with dedicated 850 MHz & future sub-6 spectrum where it makes sense; doesn’t count its commercial mmW
-       DSS is active in pockets of Florida & Texas
-       DSS & mmW are commercial already but isn’t a factor in this announcement
-       Current 5G implementation is Non-standalone (NSA) but feverishly testing Standalone (SA)   

Why it Matters

-       The national coverage marketing milestone is a large part of the ‘5G Race’ as hyped and billed by industry and the government.  While the full nationwide POP coverage is ~320M POPs, 200 may seem like a shortfall.  For reference, LTE introduced in late ’10 and early ’11 started with a phased approach. BUT when DSS comes in, theoretically, a true 300M+ target may be realized as 5G will include existing LTE bands/coverage.
-       Every carrier seems to be fast tracking to 5G SA with announced trials. Of course there are services/revenues to unlock when that day comes. T-Mobile and Verizon have discussed using SA in 2020 and with peer pressure, it’s likely AT&T will also have 2020 rollout. SA makes everything better and will be the trigger for a broader DSS rollout.
-       As an aside - AT&T tells me that they’re ready to deploy standalone 5G to its customers in Argentina and Colombia this summer.  Wow! South Americans are ahead of North America.   
-       5G enabled plans are an important consideration for the future as to take advantage of the technology, you not only need a 5G device, you need the right 5G plan.  This means that legacy plans will access 5G tech even if a subscriber BYOD a 5G capable device.  There’s no forced migration per se but certainly a way to move early adopters to the new plan portfolio.
-       The 5G network has to be there for carriers to sell devices and every carrier is in the same boat. Everyone is looking to Apple to determine whether it will support 5G in its traditional Fall iPhone debut.  Given that the AT&T subscriber base is well north of 50%, you’d think they (and other peers) are pushing Apple.  For AT&T and Verizon, it’s also about mmW in addition to sub-6GHz support.        

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

The Addictive and Competitive Nature of Speed

Many in the industry assume that LTE is pretty much done and moved onto the next big thing.  Verizon Wireless and AT&T have messaged that their networks exceed 300 million people covered and T-Mobile and Sprint both have declared national LTE footprints.  At the CTIA Mobile Con convention in Las Vegas, panels were already talking up what’s next – LTE Advance and “5G.” In truth, LTE continues to be rolled out in the U.S. and globally. In contrast, at the CCA (Competitive Carriers Association) Convention, smaller carriers were grappling with LTE buildouts, launches, device access, and roaming issues in order to serve their markets and remain competitive.  

Still LTE has been a boon for the wireless industry. On the network side, the technology is more operationally efficient than 3G; it can deliver more bits and at faster rates to users with the same amount of spectrum resources.  On the customer acquisition and retention end, LTE has been instrumental in switching users’ rate plan decisions from voice to data.  Witness the movement from tiered minute bucket rate plans to tiered and unlimited data plans.  Data is sticky and competitive. This has been validated by carriers’ decreasing churn rates, the markedly increased data allowances in plan changes, and limited time data promotions in the first three quarters of 2014. Once users taste what they can do with data whether it’s browsing or through apps, they remain hooked.   Though data has been around since the 3G days, it’s speed and low latency that enhances our user experience. This phenomenon is similar to fixed line evolution. 56K modems gave way to DSL, which gave way to fiber-based internet access. In some lucky markets, Google and AT&T are going to offer 1 Gbps service.  Over time, we’ve become more productive with speed, we depend on it and now we expect it, not only in the fixed line but also in wireless.   

Yet in the U.S., we’re often reminded about how slow our mobile broadband speeds are relative to Asia.  There have been incendiary articles how we lag the Japanese or Koreans perhaps to ignite emotion and also action. Softbank Chairman Masayoshi Son said as much in his talk to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in March.  There, he presented a slide that put the U.S. second to last with an average 6.5 Mbps LTE download speed (By the way, Australia was #1 with 22.5 Mbps).   To U.S. carriers’ credit, they continue to invest in their mobile networks to fortify capacity and speed out of necessity and to ultimately provide market differentiation.     

Speed has always been used as a competitive differentiation, aside from the usual network coverage.  In 2013, AT&T claimed the Fastest LTE Network based on some publications and drive tests. Remember the tagline “Faster is Better?” In early 2014, T-Mobile self declared that it of America’s fastest nationwide LTE network based on crowd sourced data. Its aggressive network buildout allowed for presentation of a “Data Strong” tagline and introduced “Wideband LTE” into the marketing lexicon.  Verizon Wireless has also entered with their own brand– “ XLTE” that runs on its AWS spectrum assets with the tagline “The Need for Speed.” For its part, Sprint Spark has potential but yet to be realized.  

Outside the carriers, publications such as PCMag and PC World conduct their own speed tests and declare winners. RootMetrics has been gaining carrier marketing credibility with its own independent drive tests.  In JD Power fashion, it awards winners in many categories including speed, which carriers happily have cited in their own public relations
releases.  The marketing speed card will never let up. Though we hear about network reliability, it’s speed that we can easily discern as we use our smartphones to watch the YouTube video, pull up a weather app or visit a webpage.  We have a multitude of speed test app choices including those from Ookla, OpenSignal, Sensorly and even the FCC to make our own validations. 

Carriers again continue to push the speed envelope as they employ different network and device techniques to improve the user experience.  Specifically, an exciting feature to be rolled out is carrier aggregation with other complementary alphabet soup hardware and current and future techniques such as CoMP, MIMO, and FeICIC.   If we use spectrum/channels as a roadway lane analogy, carrier aggregation allows for piecing different lanes into a superhighway. That may sound like hyperbole, complex, and fraught with execute challenges but it’s in the 3GPP standards releases and carriers say they’re committed.  For example, both AT&T and Verizon Wireless are looking to aggregate their 700 bands with their AWS bands in the future.  Down the road, T-Mobile may eventually aggregate their AWS and PCS bands.  However, in the near term, Sprint (under the Spark banner) says it’s implementing “2X carrier aggregation” on its 2.5 GHz band by end of year 2014 and 3X in 2015 with expected speeds of 100 and 150 Mbps, respectively.  We, of course, shall see since a whole host of factors can including distance from the signal source, network congestion, and physical terrain or blockage affect speed. The point is that the user’s speed experience is going to go up dramatically.  These speeds will exceed fixed line offerings and some Wi-Fi hotspots. In fact, it’s already happening.  

While attending the CCA Convention and CTIA, I routinely abandoned the hotel and airport Wi-Fi for a faster and lower latency LTE experience.  I was addicted to speed.   Recently, my not so fast follower friend, Bob upgraded to an iPhone 5s from a 4s (non-LTE) a couple of weeks ago. He said, “Wow! I can’t believe how fast LTE is.”  He moved to an increased data plan and setting to add his six grader son on soon with an iPhone 5c.  He and his son too quickly become speed addicts.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Bullet Point Analysis: T-Mobile's Un-carrier 5.0 & 6.0

WHAT IS IT?

On the evening of June 18, T-Mobile announced the latest Un-carrier initiatives – 5.0 and 6.0. Beyond these next levels of iteration that address customers’ ‘pain points,’ the network progress story provides the foundation for these and future T-Mobile moves. 
  • The T-Mobile Network (specifically its LTE capability) has been expanding aggressive. T-Mobile stated that by the end of June 2014, The LTE network will cover 230 million POPs and by the end of the year, reach 250 million POPs. T-Mobile counts 16 markets with 15 + 15 MHz (AWS) spectrum – T-Mobile’s uses the moniker Wideband LTE for these markets. To take advantage of LTE, Voice over LTE (VoLTE) is in 15 markets (not the all the same markets above) covering 107 million POPs and national coverage by the end of 2014.
  • Un-carrier 5.0, known as T-Mobile Test Drive allows consumers to receive (specifically) an Apple iPhone 5s for 7 (marketing tag – 7 Night Stand) days to use for free. After the test period (they return the iPhone to a T-Mobile store). Test Drives are limited to 1 time per year, per credit card, per customer. For business customers, instead of registering online and receiving the phone by mail, these customers will get their (up to 3) iPhone 5s units by a T-Mobile representative. Instead of one week, the business test drive period is two weeks. Both new and existing customers may participate.
  • Un-carrier 6.0 is music focused. Coined Music Freedom, Simple Choice customers with 1, 3, and 5 GB allowance plans may stream audio without drawing from their data buckets. The initial ‘over the top’ music brands include Pandora, Rhapsody, iTunes Radio, Slacker, Samsung’s Milk Music, and yet to be launched Beatport. With customer input, additional music services may be added to list.
  • Without an Un-carrier designation, T-Mobile partnered with Rhapsody to build an ad-free unlimited streaming music service known as unRadio. For Simple Choice customers get it for free or $4/month for other T-Mobile customers, and open for $5/month for non-T-Mobile customers.

ANALYSIS

  • The Network (marketing tag – Data Strong) – It’s well known within the industry that a strong network and public perception is foundational to customer acquisition and retention. Coupled with competitive pricing and a strong device portfolio, customers are unlikely to churn. Both Verizon Wireless and AT&T have strong network perception, partly due to the reach of their lowband spectrum. T-Mobile’s approach is to fully take advantage of its spectrum portfolio piecing together its AWS properties using carrier aggregation and advanced MIMO antennas. In some markets, it has 15 + 15 MHz (FDD) and 20 + 20 MHz (in 90% of the top 25 markets) in others. What this all translates to theoretical ~147 Mbps DL/ 40 Mbps UL. Of course on a loaded network, customers will likely experience less. At the announcement, it reprised its America’s Fastest LTE Network claim. It’s a certainty that this will continue be a central marketing value proposition.
Bragging: Legere shared that T-Mobile’s consumers are the industry’s biggest data users with the following stats: T-Mobile users use 69% more data than the Verizon customer, 61% more against Sprint, and 100% more against AT&T. A network engineering person would initially cringe but these consumption stats speaks to how Neville Ray’s (CTO) team work – creating a network to specifically address speed and capacity. From a marketer’s lens, a fast network embraces the explosive trend of data consumption, particularly the growing millennial segment.
  • Un-carrier 5.0 addresses two points and cements a partnership. Customer acquisition and dispelling bad network perception is behind the 7 (or 14 day for business customers) Test Drive. The postpaid market is furiously in a switching game as the number of these type of subscribers reaches saturation. Every Un-carrier move is about customer acquisition. 1.0 was about low priced no-contract plan, 2.0 (JUMP) addressed the ability to upgrade a phone, 3.0 paid the termination fees for switching and 4.0 gave 200 MB of LTE tablet data for life. With 5.0, a free ‘try before you buy’ is a huge marketing bet - specifically use iPhone 5s for competitors’ customers to try the network, without obligation. Engaged them daily with giveaways, contests and other promotions. The brilliant part of this is at the end in which the target customer enters a T-Mobile store to engage in a switching dialog. On the business side, it provides a strong lead generation tool for its infant business group. At the end of the two week test period, the business rep has a stronger position to talk about T-Mobile’s network and plans. T-Mobile is projecting over 1 million Test Drives over the next year.



Using an iPhone 5s gives Apple the opportunity to drive additional volume at T-Mobile. While T-Mobile finally got the iPhone in April 2013, it has set publicly that Android devices drove most of its sales. There is synergy here as Apple also benefits with Test Drive as a tool to convert Samsung customers with its halo device. Apple’s skin in the game is that it is providing all the iPhones. The logical psychology is that the target customer will be smitten with the 5s, benefiting T-Mobile’s iPhone volume commitments, helping to increase equipment revenues and fortifying the business relationship for future promotions.

  • Un-carrier 6.0 is essentially T-Mobile zero-rating audio data. This is a good gamble as audio data is tiny compared to the popular data hog video. Legere claims that even if a T-Mobile customer exhausts their data bucket, they will continue to listen to audio without penalty. There are two messages here – to millennials (mostly) use streaming music to your heart’s content and a general one, our network can withstand this anticipated music deluge. In addressing net neutrality, T-Mobile states the zero-rating is unilateral and aside from technical integration cooperation, there aren’t any commercial agreements. However, customer voting on which future music services will be included, some may argue an exclusion and favoritism against emerging companies. 

  • unRadio provides an alternative to the over the top streaming music services. For its young (and young at heart) subscriber base, it’s a ‘cherry’ on top of the continuing attractive features of being in the T-Mobile community. unRadio features differentiate from other internet music with features including ad-free listening, unlimited skips, customized stations, and a song ID (called TrackMatch) for music discovery. Therefore, unRadio blatantly provides an anti-churn tool for T-Mobile more so than a primary customer acquisition tool. 

COMPETITIVE IMPACT?

History has shown that most Un-carrier moves responsible for T-Mobile’s formidable subscriber growth and met by competitors in some cases.

- Un-carrier 1.0 - Simple Choice
Response: AT&T Mobile Share Value and Verizon More Everything

- Un-carrier 2.0 JUMP
Response: AT&T Next coupled with Mobile Share Value, Sprint Easy Pay, and Verizon EDGE coupled with More Everything

- Un-carrier 3.0 – Free unlimited international texting and data roaming (EDGE), Stateside International Talk & Text $10 Add-on

Response: AT&T Mobile Share & Mobile Share Value plans w/included unlimited stateside international messaging and $5 World Connect Value add-on and Verizon More Everything plans with free unlimited stateside international messaging

- Un-carrier 4.0 – Contract Freedom (Paying ETF &; Value of Phone)
Response: Limited time AT&T promotion, On-going Sprint switching promotion

Of the two announcements, 5.0 is more threatening as it couples a high-end iPhone with a no-obligation try before you buy opportunity. Fence sitters who are drawn to T-Mobile’s low pricing but concerned about network robustness are likely defectors. As Verizon’s and AT&T’s networks are proven robust, T-Mobile’s play will be pushing Test Drive participants towards the speed angle. As all carriers are in the next phase of LTE progress – carrier aggregation (to increase speed), the vulnerability will be customers with older and less capable 3G or LTE handsets and featurephones.

Monday, March 24, 2014

More U.S. Spectrum Thoughts with RCRTV

RCR followed up the previous U.S. spectrum webinar with a RCRTV session in which Dan Meyer (Editor in Chief of RCR Wireless News) , Jeff Silva (Medley Advisors) and I go into different topics. Some of these included the H-block spectrum auction/DISH strategy, unlicensed spectrum/3.5GHz, regulatory progress, Cable WiFi, etc.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

RCR Wireless Webinar on Spectrum (U.S.)

I took part in an RCR Wireless Webinar entitled : Spectrum Economics - The Emerging New Paradigm of Spectrum Use

Spectrum is the lifeblood of the wireless telecommunications space, and with a finite resource straining to serve an increasingly data-hungry consumer base, the pressure is on to free up new assets, for carriers to get their hands on what’s available and for equipment vendors to find more efficient ways to use what’s available. RCR Wireless News will take a look at the current spectrum market, from the ways the federal government is trying to free up spectrum, to the importance of current spectrum auctions and looking at developments in technology and small cells designed for greater efficiency.


What You Will Learn: 
How the wireless industry values wireless spectrum and ways in which vendors and wireless carriers are trying to squeeze more efficiency out of current supplies. Also a view on how the federal government is looking to free up more spectrum for non-conventional uses.

Who Should Watch: 
Those involved with network planning, including small cells and non-traditional networks. Also, those involved with roadmap planning for wireless carriers, vendors and equipment providers. 

Moderator: Dan Meyer, Editor-in-Chief, RCR Wireless News 
Analyst Angle: William Ho, Principal Analyst, 556 Ventures
Panelist: Jeffrey S. Silva, Sr. Policy Director, Telecommunications, Medley Global Advisors
Panelist: Steve Berry, President and CEO, Competitive Carriers Association

Register at RCR Wireless here to hear it.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

LTE Speed Titles

AT&T has already taken the LTE speed mantle for 2013.  I think that speed will continue to be an important marketing differentiation.  Sprint Spark, based on 2.5 GHz spectrum as that opportunity to break Sprint out of its downward slide.  



My article in RCR Wireless entitled LTE Speed Crowns and Network Dependencies lays out some of my thoughts.  A key piece in increasing speed is when carrier aggregation kicks in. In a nutshell,   it's the ability to piece together disparate pieces of a carrier's spectrum portfolio to make a 'fatter pipe' in order to deliver to the user, a faster speed (and lower latency) experience. Of course there are a lot of hardware dependencies that go into it.

While speed is exciting, what looks to be a Sprint win may be a marketing and revenue loss in the non-metropolitan areas.  That is due to 2.5 GHz's poor propagation characteristics.  It just cannot reach out there and Sprint's problem is that thought it has a lot of the frequency, in order to make it effective nationally, they would have to expend a LOT more money to blanket the U.S. geography. This is a similar argument that you don't see a fully geographic national PCS network.  Verizon Wireless and AT&T will have that advantage with their sub-1GHz portfolio. When these larger carriers piece their deep cellular bands with their 700 spectrum, they will have the ability to deliver greater speed than Sprint outside of the metropolitan areas.  This won't happen for a couple more years late 2015-2017, perhaps.   

Sprint will need to execute on its 2.5 GHz Spark buildout to have a shot at the standard speed surveys that Root Metrics (various metro updates over the course of the year) and PC Magazine (May) performs. It may be that Sprint will win some important metros but may not get the 2014 title until those survey cities are 'Sparked.'  Throwing a monkey wrench in 2014 will be Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile tapping their deep AWS assets. T-Mobile has already been reported to have a 20 X 20 (20 MHz down/20 MHz uplink) in the Dallas area while Verizon Wireless has turned on  20 X 20 in New York.

When Spark reaches some critical market threshold, I fully expect Sprint to turn up the marketing to push speed and unlimited.(And introduce a deep Tri-band device portfolio). It should definitely appeal to the technology forward users.  I'm also thinking that the tech blogs should help the cause. Of course, it depends on getting that network going. 

2014 will be an interesting speed year.  

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Bullet Point Analysis: MetroPCS's 15 New Market Expansion & New Handsets

MetroPCS had multiple announcements. The first announcement focuses on expanded its smartphone portfolio with the Nokia Lumia 521 ($99) and LG Optimus F3 ($149). While handset announcements are less than notable on a strategy, there are small tidbits that one can glean. They are:

  • The  smartphones are not CDMA. This is a step to migrate the subscriber base to the T-Mobile network (100% goal in 2015) .
  • The Lumia is an HSPA+ only device and comes from the T-Mobile prepaid device stable. Moreover, it give MetroPCS a Windows Phone choice.
  • The LG Optimus F3 is HSPA+/LTE. Other carriers have the F3 in CDMA configuration. The F3 has better processor specs than the postpaid Optimus L9 offering. So the prepaid version bests a postpaid offering, albeit a tad smaller (4" vs 4.5" screen).   

The second press release was more interesting.  MetroPCS announced 15 new markets, expanding their total market reach to 30 markets.  With this announcement, the company has opened up for business in those markets along with distribution.  However, Metro will wait until September 1 for their advertising push. 

Of the 15 markets, 8 are Leap markets. T-Mobile's CEO has talked up a head-to-head match up against Leap. Interestingly some are in Texas, a Leap stronghold. One symbolic market that stands out is San Diego - Leap's corporate headquarters.  Key to the success will obviously be distribution - big box stores such as Best Buy and third party retailers. The company is looking for 200 doors in August with more in the fall.
  • Baltimore, MD - Head-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • Birmingham, Ala. - New market without retail Leap presence; Next major city that links up with Atlanta market
  • Cleveland and Akron, Ohio - adds to Great Lakes coverage
  • Corpus Christi, TexasHead-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • Fresno, Calif. - Head-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • Houston, TexasHead-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • Memphis, Tenn. - Head-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • New Orleans, LA  - New market without retail Leap presence
  • Rio Grande Valley, Texas  - Head-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • San Antonio and Austin, TexasHead-to head against Leap/Cricket
  • San Diego, Calif. - In Leap's backyard (its headquarters)
  • Seattle and Tacoma, Wash. - In T-Mobile's HQ area, no brainer in opening up distribution in the parent's backyard; New market without retail Leap presence
  • Tallahassee, Fla. - Rounds out MetroPCS's Florida coverage. New market without retail Leap presence
  • Toledo and Sandusky, Ohioadds to Great Lakes coverage; New market without retail Leap presence
  • Washington, DCHead-to head against Leap/Cricket

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

AWS Spectrum Maps - Before and After: AT&T-Leap Buyout

In yesterday's post, we saw the results of a combined entity spectrum depth map that displayed the 700MHz, Cellular, PCS and AWS bands.  However, one of the points I brought up was AT&T staying in the AWS spectrum game for LTE capacity fill in (to 700) and to position itself from an AWS LTE roaming standpoint. In this post, we are fortunate to show the AWS holdings for Leap and AT&T. 

Leap AWS spectrum

AT&T AWS spectrum

Combined AT&T-Leap AWS spectrum


What have we concluded? Specifically, the AWS national footprint still far from filled as evidenced by the white on the map. Once AWS LTE roaming happens, AT&T has the option to fill those areas, if necessary.

Despite the AWS gaps, we can see that Leap will strength AT&T LTE in specific markets such as:
  • (West) Seattle, central California, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Denver
  • (Southwest) Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tuscon, Sante Fe, El Paso
  • (Midwest) Kansas City, Omaha, Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Louisville, Nashville
  • (South-ish) San Antonio, Ok City, New Orleans, Little Rock, Memphis, Hashville   
  • (Mid-Atlantic) Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington, DC, Richmond, Charlotte, Raleigh, Columbia
  • (East-ish) Buffalo, Pittsburgh
Again, the combined AT&T-Leap spectrum depth map (note this excludes WCS spectrum)



Thanks to Mosaik for their output.

Monday, July 15, 2013

The AT&T-Leap Spectrum Depth (A Map View)

Spectrum is indeed a prime factor in any wireless carrier acquisition. Spectrum maps play an important role in understanding deal motivation and what the resulting merged entities' national spectrum depth looks like.

The Leap spectrum view:
Though Leap's spectrum (mainly PCS and AWS (the 700 in Chicago is for sale)) goes beyond their operating regional markets, the company's business model focuses in on densely populated markets. 

The AT&T spectrum view:
The combined AT&T-Leap spectrum view:


With the Leap spectrum, AT&T is strengthened in some heavily contested markets including, the Mid-Atlantic, central California, Las Vegas (better AT&T service at CTIA?), Denver, KC (Sprint's backyard), St. Louis (Sprint's newest market acquisition from US Cellular), and Northwest (Seattle - T-Mobile's backyard). Of course, the big question is will spectrum need to be divested?  The Department of Justice uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to measure market concentration for purposes of antitrust enforcement.  

Note: Thanks to Mosaik for the use of their MapElements output.