Impacts: DISH & AT&T's Network Services Agreement

What: DISH and AT&T signed a long term network service agreement making AT&T the primary network for its DISH MVNO brand (Boost Mobile, Ting and Republic Wireless) customers.

Though the terms were not disclosed in the DISH SEC 8-K filing, the media reports point to 10 years and worth at least $5 billion. Moreover, the agreement allows AT&T to use a portion of DISH's spectrum in various markets to help support DISH's customers on the AT&T network. Lastly, AT&T is providing transport services to support DISH's 5G network. 

Why: DISH needed to exit/held hostage to an acrimonious T-Mobile relationship prompted by the announced CDMA network sunset by January 2022.   The sunset would require DISH to convert (read handset subsidy) those legacy CDMA subs to newer compatible devices. 

When: That is an unknown on the rollover of these customers. However, it's likely before the end of 2021.

Impact:

• DISH
• Gets out from under the T-Mobile thumb/control despite favorable ostensibly wholesale rates when it took over the Boost branded base 
• Likely to receive an incentive monetary sum to assist DISH move subscribers onto AT&T network  
• Gets out of direct device subsidies of those CDMA subscribers; could use that incentive sum to help offset those devices
• Possibly gets access to AT&T device relationships to drive down DISH's subsidy costs (near term and future) as well helping to pad the device offerings
• Ostensibly, this AT&T wholesale deal would provide better monetary terms/outcome for DISH in order to exit the T-Mobile relationship 
• Allows DISH to bundle wireless service with its own satellite television service (double play) allowing for increased ARPU and growth in rural communities it currently serves

• T-Mobile
• Loses wholesale revenue from '22 onward though the T-Mobile should have factored in DISH's 5G network buildout projections and worse case planning given the increasing symmetrical war of words    
• Loses a customer/partner that is increasing hostile (the T-Mobile Grinch commentary). That could be construed as a good thing.
• With 'renting' some of DISH's 600 MHz spectrum that allows for T-Mobile's vast national 5G claims, DISH could opt to terminate the spectrum leasing and leave T-Mobile with future 600 LTE & 5G coverage holes.  T-Mobile and DISH came away with a 42 month lease arrangement back in late '20.

• AT&T
• Gains future wholesale revenue, presumably for 10 years, and takes it away from arch rival T-Mobile
• Gains access to DISH's spectrum in certain markets
• Though the primary purpose was to support DISH's customers, what's to stop AT&T to also support AT&T customers?
• Markets were not identified but likely in dense urban markets where Boost subscribers consumer service
• Unclear whether this is relegated to just LTE connectivity or future 5G as DISH would logically have its own national 5G owner's economics 
• Gets near term and future transport revenue for DISH's 5G buildout. This would help with some return on investment (CapEx) on the company's big multi-year fiber push and buildout 
• Allows DISH to blunt T-Mobile rural growth as a viable competitor (if DISH can execute)   

Sprint's 5G Launch Potentially Gives It the 'Yellow Jersey"

At Mobile World Congress, Sprint announced its intention to launch 5G in May  with initial markets in Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City, along with Houston, LA, NYC. Phoenix and Washington, DC.

In support of the 5G foray, the company has lined up vendors to create and make available complementary halo devices LG (V50 ThingQ 5G), Samsung (Galaxy S10 5G) and HTC (5G Hub).   

The big picture: Sprint is finally realizing the advantage of its 2.5 GHz spectrum. While most of rivals were deploying LTE with FDD spectrum, Sprint's 100+ MHz TDD is a blessing as it can use that same wide bandwidth dynamically (split mode) to serve LTE and 5G. Therefore, it can add more downlink where market conditions require in contrast to a defined chunk of bandwidth as in competitors' FDD modes.

• On the technology side, Sprint has been very vocal about investing in Massive MIMO radios and antennas, either when upgrading existing sites or building new ones. This technology is foundational as a 5G enabler and is ramping up in the first 5 months of 2019.  
• Sprint's LTE Advance should be well over 220M POPs covered. But in late 2018, the company claims 225 gigabit LTE cities. This is important as it can provide a similar customer speed experience along side 5G. 

Why it matters:  To take a page out of the Tour de France where the leader wears the 'yellow jersey' as the winner in the stage, the 5G race seems to line up with Sprint.  While larger competitors AT&T and Verizon are deploying fatter mmW spectrum for fixed and quasi mobile service, it's unclear how they will get a national 5G footprint (It can bring in its discontinued 3G spectrum).  T-Mobile is banking on its FDD 600 MHz to provide the national coverage layer that could win the 5G geographic race down the line but it currently is still deploying and waiting for television station clearing. Moreover, it's unclear how much of its limited spectrum that it shares with LTE can provide a meaningful 5G experience. 

To be sure, Sprint's 2.5 5G coverage cannot provide a fully filled-inn national map. Physics makes it just too expensive to do so. However, using the 2.5 GHz in already built out markets and Massive MIMO upgrades along with the trend of vendor modularity (software and 5G 'cards'), Sprint can provide more 5G POP coverage than competitors in 2019.  

Tour de France observers will note that the race is multi-stage and with each stage there could be different leaders wearing the yellow jersey.  For now, in the first stage of the domestic 5G, it's looking like Sprint.

Extra content: John Saw, Sprint CTO at Mobile World Congress 2019 talking about its 5G network plans.

On the Road to 5G

I participated in a RCR Wireless Webinar on 5G - "Breaking Down the 5G Future" recently along with representatives from Sprint, Nokia, Qualcomm and National Instruments.

5G's is exciting, with a lot of pressures on the use cases and business models. Lots of promises that need to be delivered. My view is some of the promises are being tested in today and tomorrow's LTE/LTE-A environment, ready to evolve in 4-5 or more years.



Here's the video.

AT&T - Verizon Rate Plan Competition, Playing for Parity

In July, Verizon changed their wireless rate plan portfolio. The media and tech bloggers derided those changes because the new price points were higher than those replaced.  Verizon argued (logically) that in the end, new plan subscribers got more MB/$ spent.  Yes, the math holds true.  I argued back then that while many focused on the lower (consumer) price points, the real threat was to AT&T in the mid and high tiers where high-value customers, SMBs and enterprises shopped.

Fast forward to mid-August as AT&T has announced their own rate changes.  No longer is the portfolio named Mobile Share Value but now Mobile Share Advantage (MSA). The "Advantage" piece speaks to ridding of the overage penalty and providing consumer friendly (albeit punishingly slow) 2G data rates.  Also, expanding the North American for 10 GB subs with unlimited talk/text to Mexico and Canada with local plan capability in Mexico.

The MSA plans to be in effect on August 21st have several important goals:

1. Correct and increase mid-tier competition against Verizon
2. Correct price vulnerability and meet high-tier price parity against Verizon.
3. Increase service ARPU 

Mid-Tier Competition

In the history of rate plan competition, price planners/product managers have at times matched price points, voice minutes or data thresholds.  Every company has their own reasons and their own strategies. With the Mobile Share Advantage, AT&T chose to match price and data at the 16GB level but gave 1 GB more for 25 GB at the $110 price point.  This suggests to me that this may be a high-value customer battleground area.

High-Tier Price Parity

In July, I noted that the Verizon's rate changes threatened AT&T's high-value users  (SMB and enterprise) customers. Historically, AT&T and Verizon usually match each other at these higher tiers with the logic that no one really needs a huge price wars with these (usually) less price insensitive accounts.  Looking at the chart, it's notable how much the pricing has dropped for both these premium carriers.

As a side observation, it doesn't help that Sprint and T-Mobile are actively going after these higher value postpaid accounts.  

Though AT&T's changes for the most part draw level to its largest competitor, Verizon has a 2GB/line promotion applicable to  XL levels and above.  

It is unclear when this 2GB promotion will end, AT&T is still under the competitive gun, especially as the 3Q16 ends and ultra-competitive 4Q16 begins - read iPhone 7 launch.  Whether AT&T will inject a similar promotion remains to be seen but the threat is formidable unless the carrier can change the playing field with an aggressive handset promotion or trade-in values.  

Boost Service ARPU

Lost in the changes in price points is the increase in the per line access fee. What was $15/line/month at plans greater than 15 GB and $25 for plans less than 15GB/line/month, the new access rate is $20.  This is in line with Verizon's.  While I saw the lower $15 as a price differentiation, the new hike falls in line with AT&T (and Verizon's) march to higher profitability per user/per account.  One can also argue that with the mid and high-tier offerings, AT&T is giving away more GB so there needs to be a monetary balance to make up for it.

Asterisk*: For business plans, AT&T has kept the $15/month access line to give it that price differentiation.

Moreover, with service revenue trending downwards thanks to EIP, anything to reverse the decreasing ARPU trends and at the same time increase the average revenue per account (ARPA) will be welcomed by the CFO's office.  As AT&T iPhone 5, 5s and 6 users upgrade to the new iPhone, service reps will invariably push the new MSA plans as a new value with lower pricing, by default fighting any switching thoughts. 

Pricing Strategies

Many may be puzzled why any Verizon and AT&T rate changes are against each other and not Sprint and T-Mobile. It's simple, Verizon and AT&T position themselves as premium carriers and focused on purely profitability.  From a corporate revenue standpoint, there is no need to race to the bottom and upset stable revenue trends.  However, it is exactly this stance that Sprint and T-Mobile with less postpaid base are willing to take lower profitability margins (relative to the big two) to easily take marketshare. T-Mobile's positive porting numbers against Verizon and AT&T quarter over quarter speaks to the big two's profitability handcuffs.  Of course with the introduction of T-Mobile One and Sprint Unlimited Freedom may continue to claw for AT&T and Verizon high data consumers. 

2Q16 US Mobile Carrier Wrap & Scotch

An end of the second quarter 2016 wrap up of the top 4 US carrier community. We discussed T-Mobile quickly with smatterings of Verizon's new head of wireless hire, Ronan Dunne and their path to retort T-Mobile and Sprint.  As with previous Carrier Wraps, we discuss prepaid and postpaid trends.



We end by discussing our picks of the session - Glenlivet Nadurra and Macallan 10 yr Fine Oak.

Verizon's July Rate Plan Changes Really Threaten AT&T's High-Value Subscribers

The Verizon changes that became effective on July 7th were leaked many days ahead of the launch. The media's, bloggers' and mobile industry junkies' discussion and focus has been on price increases at the S, M, L XL and XXL bucket levels.  As with many carrier plan actions, the Verizon message is that there is much more data (in light of strong data consumption trends) for the new price points. The graphic below shows the plans - old on top and the new on bottom.

For industry watchers, it's clear that competitors Sprint and T-Mobile continue to enjoy price advantage. The logical conclusion is that Verizon has no chance to win back former customers or draw from Sprint and T-Mobile with this action.

What? A price increase? What's Verizon smoking? 

Rather, Verizon's plan move was to attack AT&T to gain high-value customers AND retain its own.  It's no secret that AT&T and Verizon has been very vocal about not playing for the 'price-sensitive' customers and has concentrated on customers who yield greater revenue per account.  This means the target segment is large data consumers, small and medium business accounts.

Within this July price action, the more interesting movement happens at the XL and greater data levels.  The bottom line here is that Verizon increased the data value gap and reduced price points against AT&T.

Let's break the action out into two chunks, the mid-range and the high-end.  In the mid-range where I suspect a lot of bread and butter family plan battling happens, Verizon wins.  Verizon was already winning at the $100 price point, providing 18GB whereas AT&T offered 15GB.  However, the new move presented a less expensive $90 - 16GB level.  The same story is at the next data contention area; the value gap is most pronounced against AT&T's $140-20GB plan.  With a lower $110-24GB combination, Verizon should win the AT&T switcher.

At the high-end, it's pretty apparent that Verizon has a dramatic price and data value gap and the upper hand in selling to data hungry consumers and business data pooling accounts.  Verizon wins dramatically in price as the same data levels.

What's next?  Given this discrepancy, AT&T needs to respond in some fashion or risk losing these high-value users.  Verizon should be turning up the marketing within business sales channels now that their sales reps are armed with pretty good products - messaging price - data value and network.

Talking About Sprint Since Marcelo Claure's On-Boarding

Dan Meyer from RCR Wireless and I discuss Sprint's CY1Q16 results but revisit where Sprint is since Marcelo Claure has taken over as CEO.  We look at his priorities when he took over in August 2014 in the areas of:

• The executive team - who is in, who left, how the company is organizing
• Network - CapEx
• Cost containment including leasing companies, layoffs and $2.5B savings target
• Stabilizing revenue, the postpaid subscriber base and being the Value carrier

In the back half of the video, we talk about Glenlivet 12.

Handset Promos - BOGO from the US carriers + Scotch Second Take

In early 1Q16, the US carrier community pushed Buy One Get One (Free or 1/2 price) BOGOs hard in an effort to retain existing subscribers with an upsell of an additional line.  In parallel with this effort was the availability of the Samsung Galaxy S7, announced in February at Mobile World Congress.

Secondarily, it has to be that Samsung continues its marketing push to retain its loyal Galaxy customers to push them to the next iteration, whether they're Galaxy S4, S5 or S6 customers.

All these BOGOs are yet continuous carrier efforts to trot out the latest hardware. But BOGOs are not new and have been used for years. Unfortunately, the era of contract free plans and equipment financing have cut into upgrade rates.  In the old days, additional upgrades help retain/lock customers longer with low subsidized values. Given the sobering price tag of new devices and long term financing (24-30 months), that desire to upgrade has trended downward as more subscribers are keeping their handsets longer. Don't get me wrong, the early adopters will always have a place but the mainstream upgrade trend is slowing.  Caveat: We'll see how the public en masse embraces the next generation of iPhone (7).



For those scotch watchers, Dan Meyer and I talk a bit about the scotches we're currently drinking for the webcast here. We are self-admitted newbies and don't go in-depth as dedicated scotch YouTubers do but we share our likes and other scotch thoughts.

In Defense of Sprint's $20 1 GB/Unlimited Entry Plan

There has been much negative reporting and commentary about Sprint's new rollout of the $20 starter 1 GB/Unlimited plan with 2G speeds after 1GB is used up.  Essentially, they're getting rid of an overage tax.  Rather than a negative take as reported by the Verge, BGR, Droid Life and Android Authority (all tech blogs) on the unattractiveness and that Sprint was "fooling" customers.  To be sure, FierceWireless also picked up on the negative groundswell in their piece.  When I tweeted about the negative plan, the Twittersphere also weighed in.

@billho888 @evankirstel Consumers hate fine print that's perceived as 'gotcha' or trickery.

— Brett Murphy (@PowerMan4Evr) October 30, 2015

@billho888 and why shouldnt they? it is a bit of a joke..

— MJB (@WigglesPalmer) October 30, 2015

@billho888 They should be. 2G is over 20 years old. Maybe they can match the plan to this phone https://t.co/iQXZgkQnyu

— Chris Dalton (@ChiDalton) October 30, 2015

I'm not pro-Sprint or anti-Sprint historically, I try to have an even balance and call it as I see it.  I see it differently and can understand what Sprint is trying to do. Let's look at the wireless landscape today. 100% wireless penetration has been reached. That is, theoretically those who want a wireless phone/device have already got them.

TARGET AUDIENCE

Of the big four carriers, Verizon and AT&T have the lion's share of the coveted 'prime' and high-value postpaid users. Both are protecting their bases as best as they can and invariably, some high-value subs and low value subs leave for competitors.   It's been well documented that Verizon and AT&T have said that they'll let some of their subscriber base go to protect profitability.  I interpret those as mainly (not totally) as price sensitive and lower ARPU/ARPA/ABPU customers. Add to that in most every carrier, there are the feature phone users.  Every carrier wants to migrate those feature phone users to smartphones because they know that when new data capabilities are used, more get consumed and eventually, the customer upgrades to higher data levels. Verizon and AT&T have been losing those feature phone and entry data customers for many quarters. So for Sprint, they see that as opportunity.

My point here is that the new entry plan is not targeted to existing users who have been data use veterans but for subscribers who have not really tasted data, don't have a smartphone yet, price-sensitive, all or a combination.  Note the Sprint price comparison is against competitors' entry plans.  This is where I think the tech bloggers are missing the point as they're techies and are all data vets.

2G?!

The other point of contention is that the vitriol concerning 2G. Yes, it is slow in today's LTE world. In today's environment, we even get upset when we're on 3G (EV-DO or HSPA). But the targeted sub may or may not care. MetroPCS before T-Mobile bought them out operated on LTE and a 1x fall back (MetroPCS never went to 3G) and yet they still promoted an 'unlimited' marketing message.  If subs did care, they'd jump to another competitive offering (likely in prepaid) or upgrade their data plan level (that's the point).

But why 2G and not 3G (EV-DO)?  My view on Sprint's thinking is that you don't want to have these entry/lower ARPU bearing customers contending for data on the 3G network that some of the higher ARPU bearing customers are using. That would be worse, alienating those customers and providing an overall bad user experience all around =-> churn.

Will it be successful? Ultimately, as a plan is designed, it comes down to sales and marketing execution in convincing the target segment that it's the best value/deal out there for what they're looking at.  Obviously, this plan is readied for the heavily promotion laden and competitive 4Q holiday season.  We'll see if competitors react.

Three Win-Win Wireless Network Features

Published at FierceWIreless

Ho's Perspective: 3 network win-win features Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and Sprint are using 

October 22, 2015 | By William Ho

The wireless network, as we bring it up in everyday conversation, is often about coverage and capacity. Much has been written about LTE networks becoming the revenue growth engine for the industry, the need to deploy complementary equipment such as Distributed Antenna Systems and small cells to meet data demand, and carriers' expanding geographic and population coverage.

Still, many companies are looking to move beyond the standard network buildouts. AT&T is moving aggressively as the industry pioneer toward Software Defined Networking and Network Functions Virtualization with benefits of scalability and flexibility both operationally and from the cost, product and service viewpoint. Verizon is also following suit and while Sprint and T-Mobile US have not formally committed themselves, it's a logical industry path. Beyond these macro network topics, there are network features that are synergistic for both provider and user.

Here are three network features that are in various states of deployment and development that I believe are ultimately win-wins for both mobile carriers and users:

1. Carrier Aggregation (CA) is an LTE Advanced feature that allows mobile carriers to meld disparate spectrum for wider channels, thereby supporting greater download speeds and network capacity. This network feature has been for the most part taken for granted as almost every carrier is "doing it." A check on the 3GPP specifications show a myriad of global carrier aggregation FDD, TDD, intra- and interband combinations. While some carriers can delay this feature by having wide contiguous spectrum (e.g., T-Mobile's 15-20 MHz band in some areas), other carriers are already implementing two times carrier aggregation (e.g., Sprint's two-carrier CA in the 2.5 GHz band, AT&T is doing 700+AWS, Verizon is doing 700+AWS). Yet in the near future, carriers will be embarking on three-carrier CA. Sprint and AT&T have both signaled that this is going to happen. Cynically, one can view it being ammunition for the speed arms race playing out in marketing messages and media coverage.

Beyond marketing, having faster download speeds addicts users so they invariably consume more data. Rarely do users complain that their mobile broadband experience is too fast. Quite the opposite, there is the sense of annoyance that network speeds aren't fast enough. Clearly, this plays in the hands of carriers offering greater data buckets and simplistically the overt path to drive service revenues. As download speeds increase beyond tens of Mbps to hundreds, carriers can potentially offer speed tier services based upon price point or brand. On the fixed wireline side, AT&T, Verizon, Comcast and others offer service based on speed tiers, so the concept is well understood by the marketplace. In the mobile space, a variety of factors prevent offering a minimum download guarantee but the industry can flip the concept in limiting a maximum speed. This is already happening in the prepaid space as AT&T's Cricket users are limited at 8 Mbps in a way to differentiate and protect the AT&T postpaid experience. Creating reliable download speed bands potentially allow for carrier plan varieties and ultimately user choice. That is, a subscriber who wants lesser speed can pay less. Moving the thinking into the wireless fixed access realm, the opportunity exists to mirror standard fixed wireline offerings. Ultimately, carrier aggregation can provide choice.    

2. "Twinning," for lack of an industry term, is the current ability to link multiple (compatible) devices to a primary mobile number. AT&T's Chris Penrose, senior vice president of Internet of Things (IoT), used the expression at several industry analyst events, including CES and the 2014 and 2015 AT&T Industry Analyst conferences. Sure enough, the formal service announcement became "NumberSync." Immediately many people pointed to Apple's Continuity feature for similarities, but while it is an Apple ecosystem benefit, NumberSync and the idea of twinning is platform agnostic as the network plays a major role. With AT&T's announcement, T-Mobile and Sprint also said they were working on something similar. Though Verizon is mum, it's likely that an offering will eventually come as it appears to be an industry no-brainer, especially when driving IoT adoption.

It makes sense that AT&T is first to pioneer the feature as its connected devices bet has spanned several years with many partners. The need to use Bluetooth or Wi-Fi to tether the device to a smartphone, especially in wearables (think watch/fitness band) has limited those devices' mass appeal as both need to be carried. Now, with the network aware that there are many connected devices to the same mobile number, this could help boost wearable interest and adoption. Though the low hanging fruit are wearables and tablet use cases, connected home and automobile are the next frontiers in the consumer space. Certainly the bill of materials in attaching a cellular modem package to a wearable may be a short-term challenge but as the industry scales, pricing invariably will drop.

From the subscriber view, it's adding a "line" or device on their data share plans without extra fee. From the carrier view, every IoT attachment increases service ARPU and customer stickiness, and loyalty increases, which positively impacts churn. Twinning is an exciting first step for more innovation in the connected device arena that will surely play out with numerous announcements at the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show.    

3. The idea of unlicensed LTE has been thrown around for several years, spearheaded by Qualcomm. Operating LTE in unlicensed spectrum (initially 5 GHz) appears to be a natural progression for the efficient mobile technology. At the heart of the matter is to increase the mobile user experience in terms of download speeds. In areas where mobile speeds may suffer (e.g, indoor malls), unlicensed band availability may help offer the user a consistent, similar, or faster mobile experience. Yet the topic is not without controversy and spawns confusion as there are several approaches in various stages of development and favored by different parties (LTE-U, LAA, LWA, MuLTEfire). On top of which, providers including cable companies with substantial Wi-Fi business model interests operating on the same unlicensed bands are wary of resource contention and ultimately being shut out. Though the controversy has played out in FCC filings and tech publications, all industry players would not want regulatory edicts, nor does the FCC want that either.

Verizon and T-Mobile have signaled their desire in seeing unlicensed LTE operation in 2016, albeit possibly with different approaches. Verizon as a founding member of the LTE-U Forum has strong interest in LTE-U whereas T-Mobile is looking at LAA. While collaboration is underway at the 3GPP and IEEE, future operations of LTE in unlicensed spectrum has united the wireless sector. EVOLVE, an industry consortium of small, larger carriers, interested manufacturers and their respective trade associations, is preparing for a lobbying and marketing push. At this stage LTE on unlicensed spectrum is fluid as all interested stakeholders attempt to influence the outcome. Though this is a global topic, the near-term battleground is in the U.S.

Despite the controversy, a solution will come about to the (expected seamless) benefit to the mobile user. Different carriers will bring different variants to market. From the carrier view, operations in unlicensed bands should be seamless and potentially obviate any negative views on coverage, speed and capacity. Moreover, data is partially offloaded from the LTE network. A seamless, fast, and consistent mobile experience is now expected by most users and will be a factor in churn.

These three network features will continue to be implemented and some will be seamless but regardless, we'll all need the latest and greatest hardware and software to enjoy these benefits. That's not so bad, right?

Tier One Carrier's Chief Marketing Officers - An early '15 Update

In the dynamic wireless business, there has been executive movement. There's no surprise that since the first post back in August 2013, there has been much movement.  Of the big four CMOs, only AT&T's David Christopher remains in the position.  There was an update in February 2014 when Jeff Hallock took over the duties from Bill Malloy at Sprint. However, Mr. Hallock's days are winding down as incoming CEO Claure announced Hallock's departure in November by the first quarter 2015.  As of this post, the end of 1Q15 is nearing and an announcement should be forthcoming.

On to the new faces, Verizon Wireless' Nancy Clark and T-Mobile's Andrew Sherrard. 

Nancy Clark

A Verizon contact stated that Ms. Clark took over from Ken Dixon in Fall 2014, who returned to a regional president's role in the Northeast. Perhaps the most visible campaign in Mr. Dixon's tenure the May 2014 branding for XLTE, positioned as an enhanced LTE experience.  Ms. Clark is the latest CMO in a long line of executives with deep operational experience. Mr. Dixon and Marni Walden before him all served as regional presidents.  

Senior Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer, Verizon Wireless

Nancy Clark is senior vice president and chief marketing officer for Verizon Wireless, the largest wireless company in the United States, with responsibility for growth and marketing initiatives for the company including brand management, customer loyalty, and introduction and delivery of mobile products and services.  A premier technology company, Verizon Wireless operates the nation's largest and most reliable 4G LTE network. 

Previously, Clark was head of the Operational Excellence Organization for Verizon, focused on identifying and implementing process improvements companywide.  Prior to that, Clark was president of the Northeast area for Verizon Wireless, responsible for the company's operations in the New England, New York Metro, Philadelphia Tri-State, upstate New York and Washington/Baltimore/Virginia regions.  She had also served as vice president of National Operations and president of the Great Plains region.

Clark began her telecommunications career with the former GTE, working in finance, marketing and sales positions for the company's Texas and California markets. When Verizon Wireless was formed in 2000, she joined the Midwest area and was responsible for sales channel operations, and then served the area as vice president - customer service.

Clark holds a bachelors degree in finance from Michigan State University and an masters of business administration from the University of Houston.

She is on the board of Safe Horizon, the largest victims' services agency in the United States, which assists more than 250,000 children, adults and families affected by crime and abuse throughout New York City each year.

Here's a YouTube video in which Ms. Clark talks in her previous head of Operational Excellence role. Sprinkled in the talk were clearly marketing themes. 

Ms. Clarke has surely been through the competitive wringer in the ultra-competitive 4Q14 in which Verizon Wireless faced one of its toughest quarters ever with attacks from Sprint and T-Mobile.  It'll be interesting to see if any new positioning develops beyond the steady network message of old.  Network parity is coming in '16 as T-Mobile and Sprint buildout their respective footprints towards 300 million population covered.   

Not many CMOs beyond Mike Sievert use Twitter but Nancy Clark does have a handle (@nancybclark) but her activity appears minimal.  


Andrew Sherrard

Andrew Sherrard joined T-Mobile in 2003 and currently serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer. Mr. Sherrard is responsible for strategic development and execution of all marketing, product development, pricing programs and activities that will help to drive revenue, customer growth and improve the customer experience for each of our brands. Prior to T-Mobile, Mr. Sherrard was a Marketing Manager for Clorox, responsible for developing and implementing the business plan, growing volume, market share and profit. While at Clorox, he also served as Brand Manager for GLAD and Pine sol, responsible for leading cross-functional teams, developing marketing strategies and plans, and managing profits and loss. Mr. Sherrard holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Mr. Sherrard is a 12 year T-Mobile industry veteran who was ironically the interim CMO for about six months before Mike Sievert joined T-Mobile and named CMO in November 2012. After this, he reverted to his role as Senior Vice President of Marketing.   For fans keeping score, in February, T-Mobile announced through a February 2015 SEC filing, Mike Sievert's new COO role. Underlying this SEC filing was a broad executive reorganization that moved Andrew into the CMO role.  

It's interesting that Mr. Sherrard made the jump to telecom after a career in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, however, current COO Sievert also started out at Procter & Gamble (P&G). We can get a sense of Mr. Sherrard's marketing thoughts in a YouTube video recounting T-Mobile's transformation to differentiate itself as the UnCarrier.  Marketing geeks will appreciate the background, thinking for the carrier's path, and detailed marketing strategy.   At the 4Q14 earnings call, CEO Legere admitted that he and Mr. Sievert 'stole' the work that Mr. Sherrard started, which ultimately became the UnCarrier campaign. 

Unlike his predecessor, Mike Sievert, who is a frequent Twitter user, Mr. Sherrard doesn't appear to have a Twitter handle. A new UnCarrier (or is it Un-carrier?) announcement is slated for March 18, we'll see if the T-Mobile marketing playbook of press, social media and advertising continues. 

What 2015 Brings

Originally posted on Fiercewireless just before the Christmas holiday.

2014 is nearly at and end and it's the time of the year when there are countless year-end review articles and 2015 predictions. While there were many highlights of 2014, I choose to hone in on network and competition.  Instead of predictions, my 2015 expectations have been laid out with technology paths and the previous year's events.

Network 

Every carrier knows that beyond service plan value and pricing, the network is the core of customer choice. It's no surprise that despite goals the carriers reach, improving, expanding and transforming the network will never really be done. Although AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless have reached their coverage targets, capital is still being expended to bolster networks for capacity and coverage. T-Mobile US and Sprint continue their breakneck pace to reach LTE network parity with larger competitors.   

AT&T met its 300 million POP coverage target in early September, surpassing its original end of the year target as it needed to close the gap against its main rival, Verizon. AT&T also needed to keep pace in its Voice over LTE introduction, albeit available in only in select markets. Aside from adding coverage, capacity, and expanding VoLTE in 2015, the company continues its ambitious transformation into a software-centric network by 2020.  Two big acquisitions, slated to be complete by the first half of 2015 will trigger network related work.  First, the DirecTV acquisition, the company will need to fulfill its promise to provide fixed wireless broadband to rural markets. With the acquisition of Mexican carrier Iusacell expected to close in the first quarter of next year, much of the remaining year should be laying a foundation for what AT&T touts to be the first North American mobile service area.

Sprint's 2014 travails from the "rip and replace" Network Vision program and turbulent corporate changes contributed to massive uncertainty and subscriber losses. Although the company ended the year with 260 million LTE POPs covered on its PCS spectrum, roaming deals with rural carriers is set to expand its own LTE geographic reach to 298 million POPs in 2015. Ironically, as competitors over delivered on coverage and timing, Sprint met its end of year 100 million 2.5GHz LTE POP target, despite skepticism. In August, the 2.5 GHz buildout strategy shifted to address the heavy data consumption markets, with the logic that the popular unlimited proposition is empty without a high capacity foundation. Still, Sprint hasn't disclosed any POP targets for 2015, as it has previously.   

T-Mobile over delivered and beat its own 2014 250 million POP target with 260 million covered LTE POPs. For 2014, the network story was one of aggressive execution by acquiring and deploying 700 MHz A-Block spectrum and refarming/implementing MetroPCS' spectrum to exceed its target. The company is very public about reaching an end of 2015 300 million POP target (without roaming) to close the network perception gap against larger competitors. In doing so, it will continue work to put in service remaining 700, AWS and PCS spectrum.  At the same time, to get better low-band breadth, it will opportunistically purchase additional 700 MHz spectrum. However, since some regional and rural carriers will implement the same A-Block flavor, LTE roaming agreements are logical.

Though Verizon Wireless technically met the 30 million POPs covered threshold in mid-2013, the company continued to deploy and put into service AWS spectrum for capacity and fill-in. Since reaching the 300 million mark, it added 8 million more by the end of 2014. Though it has already started refarming its PCS spectrum for LTE on a limited scale, this effort will likely continue as planned in 2015.

Technologies of Common Interest

• Carrier Aggregation: This LTE Advanced feature provides the capability to extend coverage, capacity and speed. AT&T has already started using the carrier aggregation feature mainly with its 700 and AWS assets. While AT&T does not have a national AWS footprint, it's logical that PCS spectrum that it is refarming would also be put into play.  As part of its 2014 2.5 GHz buildout, Sprint stated that it was rolling out two-carrier aggregation but eventually add another carrier (end of 2015) for three-carrier aggregation to raise the speed game.  T-Mobile has not said when it will deploy carrier aggregation, but it will be planned for the coming years to piece together its 700 and AWS and PCS assets.  Verizon Wireless will enable carrier aggregation to its national 700 (Band 13) and AWS footprint.   Given early PCS refarming and LTE deployment, there could be the technical possibility of 700 and PCS aggregation where appropriate.
  
  One likely byproduct of all this work will be increased speed, possibly allowing one carrier to best another nationally or in specific markets. Regardless, RootMetrics is the biggest beneficiary, as every carrier have used reliability and speed claims for public relations from their reports. Behind the scenes, it's certain that carrier in-house test organizations, third party specialists Nielsen Mobile and GWS will be busy verifying.

• VoLTE: AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon Wireless all have implemented VoLTE. Only AT&T has not claimed nationwide capability but that hasn't stopped inter-carrier interoperability activity planned for 2015. Though T-Mobile was snubbed from the press release, it would be logical that they plug in eventually.  Sprint's CDMA-based HD Voice implementation and introduction leaves them out of the VoLTE club temporarily but it has a more important focus: expanding 800 MHz and 2.5 GHz LTE. 

• LTE Broadcast: Only AT&T and Verizon have committed to this technology and have high hopes to monetize their investment.  Business models will be tested for sure.

• Wi-Fi calling: While T-Mobile used an entire "uncarrier" number (7.0) on Wi-Fi calling, helped with iPhone, it's a low priority for the big two rivals. Still Verizon Wireless and AT&T expect to deliver this capability as it likely helps business and vacationers traveling abroad.

Competition

2014 was remarkable in the level of competition. Since space is short, we'll just focus on postpaid and prepaid. On the postpaid side, there were nearly 80 pricing actions and promotions from the top four carriers, not counting the numerous extensions of promotional offers. This was more than double that of 2013. Several standout service plan tools drove customer action; these included Early Termination Fee (ETF) credit, tablet data for life, double data promotions, and no money down equipment installation plans.  

Carriers departed from the past practice of constantly restructuring their rate plans, gaming the right price point with the right data level. Though AT&T and Verizon changed their plans in the beginning of the year (i.e., Mobile Share to Mobile Share Value and Share Everything to More Everything) and Sprint rebooted in August with its Family Share Pack and iPhone for Life, limited time promotions in the back half of 2014 drove postpaid volatility and grabbed all the media headlines. Promotions gave carriers a temporary lever to address competition without permanent price drops or higher data levels.

Entering the fourth quarter, this visual graph showed the postpaid net add trending in the previous three quarters, showing T-Mobile and Verizon Wireless with good postpaid net add energy.

Source: Carrier Reports

However, carriers' full 2014 results won't be known until late January or early February when fourth-quarter earnings calls are conducted.  What we do know has been telegraphed: due to intense competition, Verizon and AT&T warned that churn was a concern. T-Mobile increase its 2014 total net add guidance from 2.8-3.3 million to 4.3-4.7 million and Sprint was confident that they would deliver positive fourth-quarter postpaid net adds. 

Without full 2014 data, can we expect the same intensity of postpaid competition in 2015? It's obvious that competition will never cease in the wireless sector but there are some road signs that it won't lull.

• Sprint's need to grow: Sprint lost nearly 600,000 customers by Q3. They cannot stop the march to win back customers.  Going after AT&T's and Verizon's large postpaid bases will likely continue, but how aggressive will the campaign be – sustained intensity in each quarter or pick and choose?
• T-Mobile and Sprint will continue to employ a $350 ETF switching credit. For T-Mobile, it's an "uncarrier 4.0" tenet while Sprint will need it as a necessary tool to prevent T-Mobile getting all the switching spoils.
• AT&T and Verizon won't sit back and play defense. 2014 showed that the big two hit back with their own switching and double data promotions. However, they won't be instigators.

Yet the intensity may be tempered as there were signs of financial community/investor skittishness that dropped stock prices. Industry competition is great for consumers but the wireless sector's volatility impacts decreasing margins and perceived overpaying for future spectrum.  2014 will likely be a blowout year for T-Mobile but replicating that performance has already been downplayed at various recent investor conferences. Rather, the thrust was about stabilizing ARPU, retention and upselling. Still, T-Mobile won't stop given their momentum.   

Prepaid never sees the headlines that postpaid commands. Though growth wasn't what it was in previous years, it's still hotly contested and relevant.  In prepaid, there were about 70 price and promotion actions, not counting any extensions. This was up a hair from 2013. The prepaid graph illustrates TracFone (folded in acquisitions) and T-Mobile being the big winners up to Q3.

Source: Carrier Reports

Unlike the postpaid activity predominantly occurring in the first three months and the last four months of the year, prepaid promotions and actions were evenly spread across the year. The battles for high-value monthly users consistently apply among the various TracFone brands, AT&T's Cricket, T-Mobile's MetroPCS and Sprint's Boost and Virgin Mobile brands.  While price sensitivity has always been a prepaid hallmark, a shift in network and LTE marketing is broadening.  Meanwhile, legacy CDMA user migration is still on the plate for Cricket and MetroPCS as each seek to move those customers onto the parent's LTE networks. 

2015 competition should be spirited, as Cricket and MetroPCS will continue their head-to-head fight. Boost and Virgin will try to stay relevant in the fight while. Given postpaid's momentum, prepaid growth may be stymied at similar 2014 rates. Get the popcorn ready for next year.

T-Mobile's New International MVNO Partner - Vodafone! Slap in Verizon's Face?

What is It?

T-Mobile announced that it reached an agreement with Vodafone Americas for new MVNO-based services for Vodafone's 400 US based multinational customers and potentially 500 customers who do have a strong US presence. Availability for the service is expected to roll out in late fall 2015. 

Analysis

Clearly both parties benefit from this relationship.

For T-Mobile, this is a way to get more subscribers on its network. 400 US based multinationals get the carrier indirectly into enterprise where competitors AT&T and Verizon Wireless have long dominated. While the knee-jerk reaction is to focus on smartphones, the announcement helps T-Mobile's other wholesale segment, machine-to-machine (M2M). 

For Vodafone, the US-based mobile offering provides the operator to enable service bundling opportunities, including low cost mobile roaming across its 27 country footprint.   The T-Mobile agreement should be more than an overall US play as Vodafone Americas include Canada and Latin America.  The company will push this as part of Vodafone's OneNet solution which touts fixed-wireless solutions.  The solution bundles include the usual enterprise operator offerings such as cloud services, M2M, telecom expense management, security and access to a global IP-VPN network.

The question for T-Mobile is many total wholesale subscribers do 400 multinational customers come with? Perhaps, it doesn't matter since in wholesale, there is none of the high cost of customer acquisition as in its retail segment.  The benefit that carrier is also hoping for is to move enterprise multinationals from Verizon Wireless and AT&T.  

So given Vodafone's long history with Verizon Wireless, it does seem to be a slap in the face. After all, the 400 target customer accounts are all US based and the potential for the other 500 potential accounts have a strong US presence, which means some could be existing Verizon Wireless clients. But then like many multinational enterprises, deals with multiple vendors provides choice and negotiating leverage which means T-Mobile/Vodafone Americas may not have exclusive deals.

It's also telling that Vodafone did not cut the MVNO deal with AT&T since AT&T's current LTE US footprint is larger overall. But if T-Mobile's wholesale business unit follows its retail unit, being the low-cost value provider could be the swaying element on top of its expanding national LTE network message, one with a goal that meets 300M POPs by end of year 2015.