2019 SHAPE-ing 5G + Other Things

The annual AT&T Shape event at the Warner Brothers Studio in Burbank, California promised to be one that explored the convergence of technology and entertainment.  This was my second Shape (first write-up here) visit.  There were differences and similarities. My view last year was that AT&T was finally showing off the content side of the acquisition that was approved in June 2018.  

As Shape is open to the public, it is positioned to be a nice public relations event where the AT&T can show off its service and content wares, provide an outlet for hopeful content creators to reallize their dreams and to further its brand. 

The big areas that pervaded in 2018 and this year were: VR/AR (or XR), content and 5G.  Some content and XR demos were complementary (duh) but 5G demos have move a bit closer to reality.  

The longest lines were for the blockbuster franchise Game of Thrones AR demo. The organizers anticipated long lines and displayed a sign indicating a 1.5 hour wait from that point.  Still, people waited for the ~5 minute demo that allowed the Magic Leap gear wearing attendee to dispatch some GOT baddies with weapons.  

And Magic Leap was a big presence in the demos beyond GOT. Magic Leap had their own area demoing several AR possibilities.  I have to say that the graphics and demos weren't overly impressive BUT in '18, there were no public demos.  Magic Leap (with help from AT&T investment) has come a long way to actually producing product and delivering something tangible.

To be fair, tech follows an evolutionary path and there should be no hesitation that future demos will get better and more compact.   And with the AT&T investment, it makes sense that Magic Leap gets a spotlight session. AT&T's Communications CEO John Donovan and Magic Leap CEO Rony Abovitz talked about Abovitz's vision on what he coined as Magicverse. The description is "... a large scale canvas for creatives, with Magic Leap merging the digital and the physical worlds to create a new reality with 5G"

The embedded video should be watched for what this man's ideas are.  It's worth it. I look forward to next year's update.

As previously noted, some of the 5G exhibits (powered by a 39 GHz base station) have some more meat on them. Where in the mainstream press and carrier marketing have been pushing high throughput speeds with every 5G launch, it was refreshing to see AT&T focus on latency as a benefit.  However, it's tough to get this concept across to a consumer audience.  There was a colleague who had an AT&T Samsung Galaxy S10 5G and he showed off some >1 Gbps speeds and everyone who saw this was already conditioned to expect that. AT&T and some other exhibits showed off some simple latency demos, not as any product or service but as more of education.

Ericsson's arcade games provided a reference between 5G and LTE latency.  In my view, the industry is now using speed as a crutch for 5G because it's what the public has been conditioned to over the 8-9 years of LTE usage.  The industry needs to move towards latency education somehow.

The consumer use case is likely AR/VR and cloud gaming but that won't be here for a couple of years.  Lastly, the content and empowerment message was live and well with several sessions. I pick two that stood out for me as excellent. First, it was The Scully Effect - I Want to Believe in STEM that discussed the role that Gillian Anderson's X-File's character, Agent Scully came to inspire a generation of women to enter Science Technology Engineering and Math.

Second, Technology and Future of Sports, though focused on the NBA can extrapolate into other sports with the vision of moving a couch spectator to one that is seemingly immersed is phenomenal.

 

While other carriers have their 5G vision demos here and there, AT&T's Shape sits uniquely to open up a wide stage for the public to see where content and tech are going. Here's to the 2020 Shape where my expectation is that the tech demos will go beyond educational.

Why T-Mobile Needs Sprint to Increase Business Revenue

On Sunday, April 29, 2018, T-Mobile and Sprint announced their intent to merge creating a $146B transaction to hopefully close in 1H19.  During the call, CEOs John Legere and Marcelo Claure talked up the consumer benefits of a combined company and that with this new company, the US would take back 5G leadership from the Asians.

There are so many areas to address in this proposed merger from regulatory hurdles, consumer benefits, job growth (or layoffs), the ‘mother of all networks,’ the winning brand, which executives came out ahead, etc.  I’ll start with the business service side because I’ve been asking this question to T-Mobile since the Un-carrier 9.0 announcement in March 2015 (Un-carrier for Business). The offering helped stimulate additional subscriber growth and impinged upon competitors’ specific business segments. Beyond the discounted plan structure, the ability to use free Wi-Fi during air travel, and free 2G global roaming, sophisticated higher revenue business services have not been in the T-Mobile portfolio.  

Sure, T-Mobile’s SyncUp fleet management solution or DIGITS offer another layer but those products also compete with similar or more sophisticated services from Sprint, AT&T and Verizon. It’s probably safe to say that much of T-Mobile’s business growth are lines in the small-medium business segment.  

For those who are wondering what sophisticated business services may be, here’s a Sprint example below: 

With a strong consumer message, I continue to wonder what of the business prospects with the combined company.   To be sure, much of the T-Mobile’s and Sprint’s business revenue challenges are unique. T-Mobile either doesn't see the return on investment in creating a sophisticated business portfolio, as that wouldn't be relevant to its subscriber base or they were waiting on Sprint all along.  Sprint has the business services (wireless and wireline) but lack the network credibility of their competitors.   I'm happy they addressed my question on the merger call and followed up with this responding vague Tweet. 

The low hanging fruit from the T-Mobile business expansion standpoint (and in their Twitter response) is rural America, bringing broadband competition to wireless and wireline incumbents. But that should already be on the T-Mobile radar, merger or not.  For Sprint’s part, the company’s 2.5 GHz 5G vision would be a compelling one in upselling and retaining its incumbent business base. Yet with capital constraints and other financial challenges, the pace, breadth and full realization of that Sprint-only 5G network is questionable (i.e., lots of major regions or national). Sprint is already in LTE catch up mode against competitors. 

A far-reaching network is everything. Verizon and AT&T know this and have invested tens of billions in their networks.  Both companies have captured consumer and business marketshare as a result. A new T-Mobile with a true 5G national network, combining low (600 MHz), mid-band (2.5 GHz) and future millimeter wave assets will surely provide a formidable network competitor to the big two, and foundational to future business revenue expansion.  

Assuming the deal is done and approved by 1H19 projections, it’s logical that parents, DT and Softbank, would increase capital (and not count on OpEx synergies) to accelerate the network vision (pun intended).  T-Mobile has a solid track record in integration (MetroPCS), network expansion and great execution. I’d expect no less from the combined Sprint and T-Mobile network planning and engineering teams. T-Mobile is already on track to plant a national 5G network flag thanks to its 600 MHz (albeit with thin dedicated spectrum), when that will be supplemented by the 2.5 GHz (>300M POPs) is the big question.   If the deal isn't approved, T-Mobile will need to build up its business portfolio to truly compete.   

[[[updated May 2, 1018]]]

On T-Mobile's 1Q18 Earnings Call, CEO Mike Sievert addressed the attacking the business segment at the new T-Mobile.   He stated: " Our business plan is funded for an expansion of our enterprise team. In year one, we’re going to take advantage of this set of capabilities and get after it and we funded our plan in year one to hire aggressively to get after the business market."

On the Road to 5G

I participated in a RCR Wireless Webinar on 5G - "Breaking Down the 5G Future" recently along with representatives from Sprint, Nokia, Qualcomm and National Instruments.

5G's is exciting, with a lot of pressures on the use cases and business models. Lots of promises that need to be delivered. My view is some of the promises are being tested in today and tomorrow's LTE/LTE-A environment, ready to evolve in 4-5 or more years.



Here's the video.